The Anomaly Phase of the Urban Planning Paradigm: Alternative Futures for Human Settlements at the Intersection of the Climate Crisis and Technological Revolution

Abstract

The confluence of the climate crisis and the technological revolution have precipitated a resurgence in discourse concerning the future of human settlements and the urban planning paradigm. The present study defines a crisis belt based on worst-case climate projections using scenario planning methods and compares two alternative scenarios: traditional settlements outside the crisis belt (S1) and urban experiments planned to be built from scratch in response to extreme conditions (S2). In S1, 34 adaptation plans were selected for evaluation based on a set of criteria, including public authority, spatial perspective, timeline, and legal binding. In S2, 18 master plans were subjected to content analysis based on official/technical documents, using 14 criteria derived from Arcadis Sustainable Cities and the OECD Better Life Index. The findings indicate that adaptation plans predominantly advanced based on optimistic assumptions pertaining to the 1.5 degrees C target, with comprehensive plans being predominantly concentrated outside the crisis belt, chiefly in high-income countries. While clean energy, green spaces, economic development, and digital services feature prominently in the content of urban experiments, individual income, security, health, and work-life balance remain ambiguous. The results of the study highlight the importance of continuously updated demand-driven adaptation pathways for extreme risks. Furthermore, the study cautions against the risk of neglecting the social justice/life satisfaction dimensions of urban experiments.