Decision-making between hybrid renewable energy configurations and grid extension in rural areas for different climate zones

Abstract

The growing population and technological developments have led to irregular houses and especially industrial facilities in developing cities. Furthermore, due to social and economic factors and the increasing massive migrations, undeveloped rural projects make irregular settlements worse. Thus, the expensiveness caused by the deterioration of the supply-demand balance makes establishment or production capacity increase of industrial facilities difficult. In this study, supplying the industrial urban facilities' demand with only grid or on-grid/offgrid HPS scenarios were investigated considering expanding and relocation outside the city. Twelve industrial cities in Turkey with various climates have been evaluated using Homer (R) Pro, considering the effects of RES potential on the techno-economic parameters. The results showed that the RES potentials changed break-even distance for grid extension between 0 and 25 km. Furthermore, it has been determined that the change in the discount rate and the grid extension costs, which vary depending on the regional geographical conditions, seriously manipulate break-even distance. Particularly, it can be extended up to 55 km depending on RES potentials and grid extension capital cost. In contrast, high RES potential make unnecessary grid extension, especially where the discount rate was less than 4%. Finally, sensitivity analyses are also presented in detail.