Possible changes and occurrences of future wave power in an enclosed sea using a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract

The present study evaluates future wave power resources and detects a possible impact of climate change on wave power in an enclosed sea (Black Sea) for the 21st century. The wave data are obtained from a third-generation spectral wave model using a validated RCM (Regional Climate Model). The wave power projection and projected occurrences are analyzed for near and middle future (NF, MF) periods based on two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). Possible changes in wave power for the NF 2021-2060 and MF 2061-2100 periods are evaluated by comparing the historical (1970-2005) period. According to two RCP scenarios, the wave power potential for the NF is expected to increase markedly over the entire basin, while, for the MF, the changes are projected by decreases, especially in the northeastern and western parts of the basin. Furthermore, projected occurrences are examined using Energy Level Occurrences known as available, moderate, and rich level occurrences. The 15 reference points over the basin are chosen to detect the most suitable location(s) for future wave power developments. All spatial and local analyses indicate that the western basin, especially the southwest, will continue having high wave power potential and occurrences in future periods.