The relationship between cement production, mortality rate, air quality, and economic growth for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA: MScBVAR and MScBGC analysis

Abstract

The related literature reveal that the papers on environmental pollution do not sufficiently analyse the cement production which is an important determinant of air pollution and health problems by using econometric methods. To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine the relationship between cement production, air pollution, mortality rate, and economic growth by employing MS Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (MScBVAR) and Markov Switching Bayesian Granger causality (MScBGC) approaches from 1960 to 2017 for China, Brazil, India, Turkey and the USA. MSIA(2)-BVAR(1) model for China, MSIAH(2)-BVAR(3) models for India, MSIAH(3)-BVAR(2) for Brazil, and MSIAH(3)-BVAR(1) for Turkey, and MSIAH(2)-BVAR(2) for the USA were selected. The MScBGC results revealed that the cement production is granger cause of mortality rate, air pollution, and economic growth in all regimes for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA.