Spatiotemporal long-term trends of extreme wind characteristics over the Black Sea

Abstract

In this study, long-term change of wind characteristics on the Black Sea has been investigated using two widely used data sources, i.e., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR), spanning 40 years between 1979 and 2018. Spatial and seasonal variability of climatic features such as the wind speed, direction, number and duration of storms, and wind power density are discussed. Wind climate is characterized by strong, durable and stable winds in the northern and western Black Sea, and relatively weak, short-lived and highly-variable winds in the eastern Black Sea. These long-term wind patterns indicate that the eastern part of the basin is likely to be subjected to the impacts of climate change. Long-term stable and strong wind conditions in the southwest part indicate reliable, persistent and sustainable wind energy potential. Long-term and seasonal variation of wind power density (WPD) at 110 m altitude over the Black Sea is investigated. There is a significant difference in WPD values between winter and summer seasons, with around 2.8 times larger WPD in winter than that in summer. In the western Black Sea, narrow confidence intervals observed in each season indicate a low level of variation during a season and ensures stable wind power conditions.