Probabilistic Risk Framework for Nuclear- and Fossil-Powered Vessels: Analyzing Casualty Event Severity and Sub-Causes

Abstract

Maritime activities pose significant safety risks, particularly with the growing presence of nuclear-powered vessels (NPVs) alongside traditional fossil-powered vessels (FPVs). This study employs a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to evaluate and compare accident hazards involving NPVs and FPVs. By analyzing historical data from 1960 to 2024, this study identifies risk patterns, accident frequency (probability), and severity levels. The methodology focuses on incidents such as marine incidents, marine casualties, and very serious cases with sub-causes. Key findings reveal that Russia exhibits the highest risk for very serious incidents involving both NPVs and FPVs, with a significant 100% risk for NPVs. China has the highest FPV risk, while France and the USA show above-average risks, particularly for marine casualties and very serious incidents. Moreover, collision is the most significant global risk, with a 26% risk for NPVs and 34% for FPVs, followed by fire hazards, which also pose a major concern, with a 17% risk for NPVs and 16% for FPVs, highlighting the need for enhanced safety and fire-prevention measures. In conclusion, comparative analysis highlights the need for enhanced stability improvements, fire prevention, and maintenance practices, particularly in the UK, France, Russia, and China. This study underscores the importance of targeted safety measures to mitigate risks, improve ship design, and promote safer maritime operations for both nuclear- and fossil-fueled vessels.