Chaotic Examination

Abstract

In the regards of chaos theory, new concepts such as complexity, determinism, quantum mechanics, relativity, multiple equilibrium, complexity, (continuously) instability, nonlinearity, heterogeneous agents, irreguhirity were widely questioned in economics. It is noticed that linear models are insufficient for analyzing unpredictable, irregular and noncyclical oscillations of economies, and for predicting bubbles, financial crisis, business cycles in financial markets. Therefore, economists gave great consequence to use appropriate tools for modelling non-linear dynamical structures and chaotic behaviors of the economies especially in macro and the financial economy. In this paper, we aim to model the chaotic structure of exchange rates (LISD-TL and EUR-TL), To determine non-linear patterns of the selected time series, daily returns of the exchange rates were tested by BDS during the period from January 01, 2002 to May 11, 2017 which covers after the era of the 2001 financial crisis. After specifying the non-linear structure of the selected time series, it was aimed to examine the chaotic characteristic for the selected time period by Lyapunov Exponents. The findings verify the existence of the chaotic structure of the exchange rate returns in the analyzed time period.